Never before have immigrants been so necessary for countries experiencing demographic decline. Never before have they been so central to the concerns of the electorate, in Italy as in the rest of the world. Three approaches to address this great contradiction, which risks compromising economic growth and undermining social cohesion.
Never before have the world’s richest countries needed immigrant labor as much as they do today. Never before has immigration been at the center of concerns for people living in destination countries, starting with first- and second-generation immigrants themselves, to the point of becoming the main arena where electoral successes and failures are built. This was starkly reminded to us, if it were even necessary, by Donald Trump’s victory in the U.S. presidential elections.
When Workers Are Missing
We have moved from a world where there were too few jobs to one where there are too few workers. OECD countries today suffer from labor shortages at all levels. Unemployment rates have never been so low. The ratio of unfilled vacancies to the labor force is at historical highs. These are statistics that make governments proud, with leaders wasting no opportunity to claim credit. In reality, they are a measure of their inability to tackle the problems imposed by demographic decline. In the short term, immigration is often the only resource to draw upon to meet the needs of families and businesses desperately seeking personnel to care for non-self-sufficient family members and to perform a wide range of tasks.
Another potential resource, in countries with historically low employment rates, is the participation of women and young people in the labor market. However, women and young people often have professional aspirations very different from the roles for which personnel is in demand. Among the most requested jobs are domestic assistance for non-self-sufficient individuals, cleaning staff, waiters, and bartenders—roles that offer low wages, grueling work rhythms, and where a large percentage of workers report being unable to make ends meet. These are objective characteristics of these jobs, difficult to change, so even higher wages struggle to attract those who currently choose not to participate in the labor market.
The demand from families and businesses is also very sensitive to labor cost variations: it would sharply decrease in the event of significantly higher wages, reducing care for non-self-sufficient individuals and many other services offered to the community.
Immigration also helps improve public finances, making pension systems more sustainable due to the simple fact that immigrants are younger than the native population, increasing the number of people paying social security contributions relative to those receiving these payments as pensions. The positive fiscal contribution of immigration also operates at the local level, primarily because it increases revenue from the taxation of second homes rented by residents rather than being registered as primary residences, exempt from property tax (IMU).
The Perpetual Emergency
Despite these economic and fiscal benefits, immigration has become the primary concern of voters. For reasons often not strictly economic, the arrival of immigrants is feared, and support is given to parties and political leaders who center their communication strategies around closing borders and mass deportation of those irregularly present in the country. As we show in this issue of eco, the strategies implemented to contain migratory flows primarily make it harder to integrate those who do arrive, condemning us to a perpetual emergency.
In order to reduce the landings of desperate individuals from North Africa, our country has funded dictatorial regimes in Libya and Tunisia. Libyan and Tunisian prisons are intended to act as deterrents to emigration but fail to completely block flows. Corruption is rampant in these countries. Many manage to escape from prisons by bribing their captors. As a result, people who have suffered extortion and violence of all kinds arrive in our country.
Studies conducted in Germany on Syrian refugees document how those who have suffered abuse during their flight struggle much more than others to integrate. They are disoriented, live day-to-day, do not try to learn the language or the social rules of the host country, and are forced to accept the first job available, even if it is barely legal. In other words, our way of outsourcing borders is not only reprehensible from a humanitarian perspective but also brings to us individuals who are very unlikely to integrate and have a high probability of falling into the arms of criminal organizations.
Another strategy pursued to contain flows consists of eliminating work permits or reducing them far below the demand from families and businesses. This has been the policy in Italy for decades, under governments of different political colors, as detailed in the reconstruction of Italian migration policies over the last 35 years offered in the following pages. Many immigrants still arrive, overstaying their tourist visas. But they cannot work legally, so they do not pay the social contributions needed to fund our pensions. Others are forced to apply for asylum to remain in Italy when they actually just want to work as soon as possible. If their application is denied, they too end up on the fringes of legality. These irregular presences are also fertile ground for organized crime. And when the number of irregular immigrants exceeds a certain level, amnesties are introduced to regularize those already here, with cumbersome and often inequitable procedures. We document how, four years after the last such measure, one in four applications is still awaiting a decision. Bureaucratic delays are also significant for renewing residence permits, during which immigrants cannot even travel between Schengen countries, discouraging many highly qualified individuals from coming to Italy.
Quantity and Quality of Immigration
Managing immigration to reconcile labor market needs and public finances with voter concerns requires addressing both the quantity and quality of immigration simultaneously. Given the low number of university graduates in Italy, particularly in scientific fields, it is crucial to attract more qualified people while avoiding the hurdles of periodic renewals that limit their freedom of movement. These individuals create jobs, integrate more easily, and, as we show, raise fewer concerns among the population.
Instead of quotas filled with outdated nominative calls from the country of origin, with priorities determined by the application’s submission date, we should adopt — as Canada does — a points-based system that fills quotas based on language proficiency and the capacity and willingness to perform roles where labor shortages are greatest, allowing these individuals to seek employment upon arrival in Italy. It may be argued that such measures drain human capital from countries that need it more. However, this is not the case: these measures make educational investments in the country of origin more profitable by combining the labor market benefits of educational qualifications with the option to migrate to countries offering greater income opportunities.
Citizenship as an Investment in Human Capital
Managing immigration means taking care of those who come to us, investing in their integration. It is grave that this government has removed citizenship reform from the political agenda. Our citizenship law is designed for an emigration country, not one that annually welcomes hundreds of thousands of people, mostly in search of work. It aims to keep connected with people who may never have lived here but are children of Italian parents. It does not define a pathway for social and economic integration at the end of which citizenship and voting rights can be acquired.
A person born in Italy to foreign parents can request citizenship only after turning 18 and only if they have lived “legally and continuously” in Italy up to that point. Germany overcame the principle of ius sanguinis 24 years ago, introducing a tempered ius soli that grants citizenship to those born on German soil with at least one parent residing there for eight years. As a result, the number of second-generation immigrants born with German citizenship doubled, providing them with long-term prospects in the host country. This led immigrant parents to invest more in their children’s education and the children to commit more to their schooling. We are in dire need of similar rules. Dropout rates among children of immigrants are around 35%, an enormous waste of human capital and a barrier to fully embracing our social coexistence rules.
Outsourcing Borders
Managing immigration can also mean entrusting other countries with the control of external borders, but without succumbing to the blackmail of dictatorial regimes or financing human rights violations. It does not mean inventing ineffective and costly propaganda operations, such as the agreement with Albania. Instead, it means investing in training and information in the countries of origin. As documented in a recent World Bank report, there are now several successful experiences (from Australia with Pacific countries, to Belgium with Morocco, to Germany with Kosovo) of training courses (linguistic, attitudinal, and job search orientation) held in countries of origin that precede the issuance of residence permits to participants. New technologies allow for remote teaching, making such training far less expensive than in the past. It is also crucial to inform potential migrants about the risks associated with irregular migration. We document how in Guinea and Nigeria, for instance, young people significantly underestimate the dangers associated with journeys of hope. How many lives could we have saved by adequately informing young people in these countries and offering them opportunities to reach us without having to cross the Sahara Desert on foot?
P.S. The next issue, available at newsstands starting February 15, will focus on trade wars.
P.P.S. We apologize to readers for the pagination error in the figure on page 68 of the last issue. The corrected version is now available on the website. This is the first time such an oversight has occurred, and we will strive to ensure it does not happen again!
